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Can Warren win the nomination without majority-black support?
As POLITICO reported, Joe Biden’s advisers have repeatedly downplayed the need for him to win in predominantly white Iowa and New Hampshire — while boasting of his strength in Southern states where black voters often dominate. And the polls, to date, back up their theory that that's his path to the nomination.
But if Biden’s firewall ever cracks — and there are some signs it’s softening in recent surveys — it will likely start with young black women, according to interviews with a dozen African American female organizers, lawmakers, and activists who are heavily involved in the Democratic primary election or closely tracking the mood of black voters.
Their consensus: No candidate, Biden included, has a lock on African American voters in key early primary states. And Elizabeth Warren is gaining traction among black female voters under 50, while Bernie Sanders has a significant following among young black voters as well.
The anecdotal reports from African-American activists on the ground offer a reason for skepticism that Biden has already clinched the Democratic Party’s must-win voting bloc. The state of play is more fluid than assumed, they said, offering hope not just to Warren but to other candidates hoping to mount a late surge in the primary should Biden collapse. Nse Ufot, executive director of the voter registration group New Georgia Project, said the notion that black voters are behind Biden no matter what is nonsense.
“In the rural black belt,” she said, “the candidate that says they have those voters locked up and that they have pledged some sort of unending fealty is the candidate that is asking for a big surprise and preparing to get their feelings hurt.”
Ufot, whose group has registered some 400,000 minorities in Georgia, has a different beat on the race than the one reflected in polls. And fellow black women organizing voters in key primary states like Alabama agree with her.
The current state of the race reminds LaTosha Brown, the co-founder of Black Voters Matter, of 2008. Black voters were behind Hillary Clinton until Barack Obama won Iowa, when, Brown said, her “phone blew up.”
“Iowa is a template of what white people will do,” said Brown, whose group played a key role in rallying black voters to the polls in Democrats’ upset win in the 2017 Alabama Senate race. “And I hate to acknowledge it, but it influences how black people see a candidate, too.”
“So if [Warren] wins Iowa or New Hampshire, it's a ball game-changer,” said Brown.
Warren’s support among black women, according to Morning Consult, has inched up from 8 percent three months ago to 13 percent in a survey released this week. Biden currently has 42 percent support among black voters, the poll showed. Morning Consult is one of the few polls that provide breakdowns of their findings by gender and race.
Alisha Thomas Cromartie, a former Georgia state representative and host of the “Fearless Chic” podcast, said establishment black elected officials have flocked to Biden because he’s a known entity linked to Barack Obama.
But “it is a mistake to assume that because local elected officials support a candidate that black voters will follow suit,” she said. Thomas Cromartie, who is 41, hasn’t endorsed a candidate but spoke admiringly of Warren and Kamala Harris and said black women her age and younger are still shopping around.
Antjuan Seawright, a South Carolina Democratic strategist and former senior adviser to Hillary Clinton, disagreed that Warren is gaining momentum with black voters. "Numbers do not lie," he said, referring to polls.
Black voters trust "honesty, authenticity, and genuineness," Seawright said, and "Biden represents all of those things for older, battle-tested African-American voters, people known to show up in elections. Could the temperature change? Absolutely."
But female African American pols interviewed for this story said the growing interest in Warren among black women presents an opportunity for the Massachusetts senator to upend Biden’s strategy. In states like Alabama, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Georgia — all influential in the primary — black women under 54 outnumber black men of the same age group. And black women consistently vote for Democrats more than most other demographic groups. Polls have captured a gradually expanding base for Warren. In the last few months, her support has expanded beyond white, college-educated to women of color, according to the Morning Consult and Quinnipiac polls — though she still trails Sanders among black voters in certain surveys. Warren also has a big cash advantage over Biden — with $25.7 million in her war chest compared to just $8.9 million for Biden — that could allow her to add campaign staff and engage more black voters in Southern states where the former VP is strong.
Biden's campaign pushed back against reports that they've lowered expectations for Iowa and New Hampshire and rejected the notion that he is taking any state or voting bloc for granted."We have and will continue to invest significant resources into Iowa, New Hampshire, and all the early contests to compete aggressively and win those states," said Biden spokesman TJ Ducklo, noting the candidate's heavy campaign presence in both states.
"The VP is the only candidate in this race who can assemble the kind of broad coalition it takes to be successful and start Democrats on the path to victory in November 2020," Ducklo added. Biden’s campaign continues to trumpet his strength among black voters and their commitment to him. And a key piece of Biden’s African American support is their ability to deliver crucial delegates needed to win the nomination.
Fox News Poll: Biden and Warren gain ground in Democratic race
As FoxNews reported, Together Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren capture the support of more than half of Democratic primary voters, according to the latest Fox News national poll on the 2020 election.
Biden stays on top in the race with 32 percent support among primary voters, up 3 points since September. He’s followed by Elizabeth Warren at 22 percent -- that’s up 6 points and a new high for her. Bernie Sanders is at 17 percent, down 1 point since last month.
While Biden’s support has stayed between 29-35 percent since March, his current 10-point advantage is about half of his 19-point lead in June.
The rundown continues with Kamala Harris at 5 percent, Pete Buttigieg at 4 percent, Beto O’Rourke at 3 percent, and Cory Booker, Amy Klobuchar and Andrew Yang each at 2 percent. Michael Bennet, Julian Castro, Tulsi Gabbard, Tim Ryan, Tom Steyer, and Marianne Williamson receive 1 percent apiece. Biden retains top billing with strong support among non-whites, voters over age 45, and moderates/conservatives. Warren has strengthened her position by increasing support among suburban voters, very liberals, and men.When Democratic primary voters’ first and second choice preferences are considered together, Biden and Warren tie at 45 percent support, Sanders is at 34 percent, Harris 15 percent and Buttigieg 13 percent.
President Trump’s allegations about improper actions by Biden and his son have so far failed to chip away at Biden’s support in the primary race -- and Democratic primary voters continue to believe the former vice president is the candidate best equipped to beat Trump in 2020: 43 percent feel that way, up from 42 percent last month. Nineteen percent think Warren has the best chance to oust Trump and 15 percent say, Sanders. At the same time, the poll finds the three top Democratic candidates with sizable leads over the president in potential head-to-head matchups.
The poll, released Thursday, shows Biden (50-40 percent) and Warren (50-40 percent) both top Trump by 10 points, and Sanders is up by 9 (49-40 percent). This marks the first time all three Democrats have held a lead outside the poll’s margin of error. Last month, Biden was up by 14 points, Warren by 6 and Sanders by 8.“If Warren continues to poll as strongly against Trump as the former vice president, it makes it increasingly difficult for the Biden team to keep making the argument he is the most electable candidate,” says Democratic pollster Chris Anderson, who conducts the Fox News Poll with Republican Daron Shaw.
The impeachment inquiry hasn’t caused any real shifts in the ballot test, as Trump’s support in the two-way matchups has been between 37-42 percent all year. However, the poll finds an 8-point shift since last month in the number expecting Trump will be re-elected. In September, more thought he would win by a 6-point margin and now more expect he won’t by 2 points. And while most Republican primary voters want to keep Trump as their party’s nominee, nearly one in five, 17 percent, would like to see someone else run.
“So far, Trump has been able to keep his Republican base on board,” says Shaw. “If the percentage opposing his re-nomination creeps into the 20s, that would be a troubling sign.”
Meanwhile, voters continue to believe Donald Trump is dishonest. Sixty-three percent say that -- far more than the 35 percent who think he is honest and trustworthy. By the way, that’s the same number who said Trump was honest before he won the 2016 election.On the other side, each of the top three Democratic candidates receives positive ratings on this measure. Sanders performs best with 59 percent saying he is honest and trustworthy (36 percent disagree). Fifty percent think Warren is honest vs. 44 percent dishonest, and for Biden, voters split 48-47 percent. Among Democrats, 87 percent think Sanders is honest and trustworthy, while 81 percent feel that way about Warren and 75 percent Biden. Seventy-three percent of Republicans say Trump is honest.
Currently, 51 percent of voters have a favorable opinion of Sanders, while 43 percent view him negatively. That puts him in positive territory by 8 points. More view Warren positively by 7 points (46 favorable vs. 39 unfavorable) and Biden by 6 (50 favorable vs. 44 unfavorable).
The ratings are closer to even for Buttigieg (+3 points), Yang (+3), Booker (-2), Harris (-3) and O’Rourke (-4). They each also have large numbers who have never heard of them or have no opinion of them. For example, 43 percent of voters are unable to rate Yang, while 36 percent can’t rate Buttigieg and 32 percent can’t rate Booker.
Voters view Trump more negatively than positively by 13 points (43-56). His personal favorable rating was underwater by 22 points in the days leading up to the 2016 election (38-60).
Twice as many primary voters say Trump’s allegations make them more likely to vote for Biden (21 percent more vs. 10 percent less), while twice as many say health concerns make them less (31 percent) rather than more likely (15 percent) to vote for Sanders in the primary.
Sanders is off the campaign trail since suffering a heart attack on October 3. He’s 78 years old, while Biden is 76, Trump is 73, and Warren is 70.
Conducted October 6-8, 2019 under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company (R), this Fox News Poll includes interviews with 1,003 randomly chosen registered voters nationwide who spoke with live interviewers on both landlines and cellphones. The poll has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points for all registered voters and 4.5 points for Democratic primary voters (484).
MNA/TT
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