Recently, the name of former US President, Barack Obama, is repeatedly heard in American political circles. While guiding and managing the Democrat's electoral campaign in the upcoming congress election, Obama intends to prepare the ground for Trump's defeat in the presidential election of 2020.
Many American analysts believe that the defeat of Republicans in the congressional elections and the serious divisions between the traditional Republicans and Trump (which will subsequently intensify) will provide the basis for Trump's defeat in the upcoming election. This is while some analysts close to the Republicans argue that this process will have little effect on the presidential election results, and it's likely that Trump will once again win the next election.
Anyhow, and apart from analyzing the incidents taking place in the US political and electoral atmosphere, the Democrats are planning to conquer the White House in 2020, and that would be after their possible victory in the mid-term elections in November. Referring to Obama's increasing political and electoral activities, the Express Daily has pointed to his visits to Democratic potential candidates for the 2020 election.
Accordingly, the former president of the United States has in recent months met with at least nine prospective 2020 Democratic presidential candidates, including Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Joe Biden and Deval Patrick, pulling them in for one-on-one sessions at his Washington office. Meanwhile, former Vice President Joe Biden is the early favorite to represent the Democrats and try to unseat President Donald Trump in the 2020 election, according to a new poll.
However, with more than two years to go before the next presidential election, the Democratic figures have already hit the road to stand against Republicans, aimed at "returning to Obama's time." As mentioned, they are planning a 28-month process with the mid-term elections as its "milestone" and the presidential election of 2020 as the "the end point".
The main question here is, regarding the current political changes in the United States, what would Iran’s policies be? There seems to be some false calculations in this regard that should be corrected.
One of the most important points here is about "how to interpret political changes in America". Unfortunately, some Iranian officials seem to have opened a special account on the "Shift of Power in the United States".
This is while no real and fundamental changes will take place in the United States this November, even in case of Democrats' victory in the congressional elections! A simple review suggests that, at best, Democrats will be able to win 55 to 58 Senate seats, which is not enough to counteract the veto power of the President of the United States in dealing with issues such as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).
Therefore, it's wrong to imagine that Democrats' victory in the mid-term elections in America would save the JCPOA. Moreover, there isn't enough cooperation among Democrats in "standing against Trump's decision in withdrawing from the nuclear deal". The silence of some Democrat senators and members of the House of Representatives well indicates this fact.
This equation is quite simple! According to Nancy Pelosi, the Minority Leader of the United States House of Representatives, Democrats are not supposed to impeach Trump after their possible victory in the congress elections. On the other hand, Democrats will focus on health, economic and social issues within the United States between 2018 and 2020 to strengthen their base among American voters (for the presidential election of 2020).
Many Democrats don't intend to stand against Trump's policies directly because in this case, they will be accused of disrupting the political order of the United States by Republicans. Therefore, we can't count on the relative majority of the Senate and the House of Representatives, indicating it as a strong leverage on the Trump government to return to the nuclear deal with Iran.
The next point is that the Obama administration was the initiator of the US withdrawal from the nuclear deal and the breach of the JCPOA. By setting the trigger mechanism, the United States and others can reintroduce sanctions on Iran. This was done by the Democrats in the process of finalizing the JCPOA.
We all remember that during the 2008 presidential competitions, Barack Obama came forth with the slogan of "change. The launch of numerous wars in the West Asian region through the establishment of ISIL and the Jabhat al-Nusra and other terrorist and Takfirist groups was also considered as Obama's other "changes". The Iranians can well remember the extension of the ISA (Iran Sanctions Act) that imposed economic sanctions on firms doing business with Iran by the Obama administration!
Everybody remembers how Obama ordered the US Treasury Department to prevent the normalization of banking and credit relations and investment of other countries in Iran! It should not be ignored that Trump pulled out of the JCPOA with the direct help of Democrat politicians such as John Kerry and Wendy Sherman. Therefore, we shouldn't let the American Democrats to deceive us with their pretensions of supporting the nuclear deal.
Finally, it should be noted that the fundamental opposition of the US two main parties to Iran is a fully established issue and it's not going to change under any circumstances. In such a situation, there no distinction between the Republicans or Democrats, and they're in a perfect harmony in their opposition to our country.
Thus our calculations in the field of diplomacy and foreign policy should be completely realistic and based on this fact. Conducting and managing the scene of the conflict with the United States calls for a deep, ingenious, and consistent measures to resist the common conspiracy of the United States two traditional parties, and it shouldn't be forgotten that these conspiracies are to continue by Democrats and Republicans.
MNA/TT
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