Citing Benjamin Cohen, a political economist at the University of California-Santa Barbara, the Daily Mail suggested in a report that California may secede from the US and ignite a civil war within the next ten years.
Cohen noted that political polarization in the US has reached alarming levels, saying the risk of civil conflict is “substantially greater than zero.”
He outlined a hypothetical yet plausible scenario where California declares independence in 2035 in defiance of federal authority, prompting a military response from the White House.
“President (JD) Vance has threatened a military takeover of state government in Sacramento, backed by National Guard troops from nearby red states. Armed conflict looks increasingly possible,” Cohen wrote in a mock news bulletin.
The concept of states seceding is gaining traction among disillusioned citizens who feel alienated by Washington. Cohen emphasized the power of identity politics, noting that “rationalism falls by the wayside” when community allegiance takes over.
A recent YouGov poll reinforced these concerns, showing that 40 percent of Americans believe a civil war is likely within the next decade — one that would pit Democrats against Republicans, not just states against the federal government.
“It’s difficult for me to imagine how things would divide up if there were a civil war,” Cohen said. “But the probability of such a war is substantially greater than zero.”
He described the possibility of secession as an “underappreciated phenomenon,” pointing out that many Americans are ready to reject US federal authority in pursuit of new political borders aligned with their ideologies.
Secession would mean abandoning the US Constitution, federal laws, and institutions — essentially forming a new, independent nation.
MA/PR
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