In the few weeks since Donald Trump assumed the presidency of the United States, there are speculations about the possible Tehran-Washington negotiations, the talks that had previously begun indirectly and led to the "Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action" (JCPOA), but Trump unilaterally withdrew from it during his first term in office, despite Iran's constructive cooperation, and imposed the most severe anti-Iranian sanctions within the framework of "Maximum Pressure" on Tehran.
In this regard, Leader of the Revolution Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei, in a gathering of commanders and staff of Air Force and Air Defense Force held on Friday morning February 7, considered it necessary to use the experience of "two years of negotiations, and concessions but without reaching a result," noting that the United States violated the same treaty despite its shortcomings and withdrew from it unilaterally.
Therefore, negotiating with such a government is unwise, unintelligent, and dishonorable, and one should not negotiate with it, Ayatollah Khamenei emphasized.
In addition to the JCPOA, a historical look at the history of the US’s commitments and agreements with other countries in the world reveals the futility and even harm of these talks, with the numerous violated and fruitless agreements between US and Russia being an example of such cases.
Futile Washington-Moscow Military Pacts
The relations between the United States and Russia, and previously the Soviet Union, have always been followed by competition and, in many cases, violations of bilateral agreements. Since the Cold War, the two countries have signed numerous treaties, many of which have been violated by the United States. Hereunder are the treaties violated by the United States that will be discussed:
- Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty – 1972
The Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty, signed in 1972 between the United States and the Soviet Union, sought to limit the development and deployment of missile defense systems. The treaty specifically limited each country to having only two missile defense systems, later reduced to one. The main goal of the treaty was to prevent unilateral superiority and maintain a strategic balance between the two nuclear powers, as the widespread development of missile defense systems could undermine the concept of mutual deterrence and trigger a new arms race.
However, George W. Bush administration unilaterally withdrew from the treaty in 2002, citing the need to develop missile defense systems against potential threats from third countries. This action provoked a strong reaction from Russia, as Russian officials viewed the withdrawal as a violation of strategic agreements and a threat to the nuclear balance. Following this action, Russia also expanded its programs to develop advanced missile systems, such as hypersonic systems, which led to an intensification of the arms race between the two countries.
- Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, 1987
The Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF) was signed in 1987 between the United States and the Soviet Union with the aim of eliminating ballistic and cruise missiles with ranges of 500 to 5,500 kilometers. This treaty was one of the most important arms control treaties during the Cold War, helping to reduce nuclear tensions between the two superpowers. Under this treaty, both sides pledged not only to refrain from producing and deploying these missiles, but also to destroy existing ones. This treaty was recognized as a turning point in reducing the arms race between East and West and paved the way for subsequent arms agreements such as Strategic Arms Reduction Talks (START).
But in 2019, the Trump administration announced that the United States would withdraw from the treaty over what it said were Russia’s violations. The United States claimed that Russia has developed and deployed new missiles with ranges beyond those set by the treaty, but Moscow denied the accusations, saying the United States had provided no credible evidence to support the claim.
The US withdrawal from the treaty prompted Russia to announce that it would no longer abide by its commitments. This action fueled global concerns about the return of an arms race and increased nuclear threats, as the cancellation of the treaty allowed both countries to deploy their intermediate-range nuclear missiles without restrictions. Some experts also believe that the US withdrawal from the agreement was a pretext for the development and deployment of new missiles in Asia and Europe, which led to increased tensions with Russia and China.
- Verbal agreement on NATO expansion – 1990
During the German reunification negotiations in 1990, Soviet officials sought assurances that NATO would not expand eastward. During these negotiations, the then-US Secretary of State James Baker stated to Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev that NATO would not expand “not an inch eastward.” This commitment was repeated by the Western officials in other diplomatic conversations, leading the Soviets to agree to German reunification as part of NATO.
But contrary to this promise, NATO has steadily expanded eastward since the late 1990s, with Eastern European countries including Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, and the Baltic states joining the military alliance. This expansion has occurred despite repeated Russian objections, which it sees as a violation of Western officials’ verbal commitments.
The NATO expansion has been a key factor in tensions between Russia and the West, such as the current crisis in Ukraine, as Moscow sees it as a direct threat to its security. Russia believes that NATO’s expansion to its borders has shifted the balance of power to its detriment and has paved the way for Western military interventions in areas under Russian influence. Despite these concerns, the United States has escalated tensions with Moscow in the past year by admitting Sweden and Finland to NATO.
- Open Skies Treaty (OST) 1992
The Open Skies Treaty, signed in 1992, was one of the most important international agreements to create military transparency among member states. It allowed signatories to conduct unarmed reconnaissance flights over each other’s territory to gather information about the other party’s military movements and activities. The main purpose of the treaty was to reduce suspicion, prevent unwanted conflicts, and build trust between countries, particularly between the United States and Russia. The agreement served as a key tool for monitoring military activities and verifying arms control commitments, and more than 30 countries participated in it.
The Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) was first signed in 1991 between the United States and the Soviet Union, with the primary goal of reducing the number of strategic nuclear weapons and preventing a further nuclear arms race. The treaty focused specifically on the reduction of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched cruise missiles (SLBMs), and strategic bombers. The agreement became a foundation for new nuclear relations between the United States and Russia with the end of the Cold War and the collapse of the Soviet Union. START was in effect until 2009, and after that it was expired.
In 2010, a new treaty, “New START”, was signed between the United States and Russia. In order to continue the process of nuclear arms reduction, the agreement limits the number of strategic weapons each country has to 1,550 nuclear warheads and reduces the number of missile launchers to 800. The treaty also includes significant transparency and oversight measures, including periodic inspections of the two countries’ nuclear facilities. New START was designed to strengthen strategic stability and prevent the risk of nuclear war in the post-Cold War era.
The United States, under different administrations, has repeatedly withdrawn from or otherwise violated its bilateral treaties with Russia. These actions have not only intensified the arms race and increased distrust between the two countries, but have also raised broader global concerns about the future of international security.
Examples such as the withdrawal from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty and the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, which have directly affected the nuclear balance and strategic security between the two superpowers, as well as the expansion of NATO, which violated the promise not to expand eastward, are just some of the cases that have created serious challenges in US-Russian relations. This situation has not only led to a new arms race, but also created deeper resentments and rifts between the major powers.
Finally, these trends could lead to a more unstable world as the international relations are based on trust and shared commitments, and their violation could lead to a loss of global stability and a return to cold and tense competition.
Now, with this serious case of non-commitment, the question comes to mind: How can a win-win agreement be reached with the United States, especially Trump who withdrew not only from the JCPOA but also from various treaties with Russia, such as the Open Skies Treaty and the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Ban Treaty?
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