Trump does not say anything in contrary to Israel's interests: senior analyst

TEHRAN, May 05 (MNA) – Alexander Azadegan, college professor from Southern California says “Trump is the first US president who is fully owned subsidiary of the Israelis in this case.”

Geopolitical senior analyst also adds “he is not going to say anything in contrary to the interests of Israeli side.”
Following is the full text of the interview:

Will the US congress be able to reach a deal on the JCPOA that can meet Trump's demands? How will such agreement be?

I don’t believe US congress can reach such a deal. As I told you, I don’t think the European mechanism be helpful at all and one of the European signatories, I mean Britain, is already on the exit door of EU. 

Keep in mind that Trump is the first US president who is fully owned subsidiary of the Israelis in this case. He is not going to say anything in contrary to the interests of Israeli side.

Israelis have always been very critical of JCPOA. Of course this is nonsensical to me because it was a horrible deal for Iran not for the west. The Israel haven’t been so emboldened and now they are supporting Saudis who are practically in a de facto coalition with Israelis. 

They feel emboldened and untouchable. As I told you this deal has already been terrible for Iran and this country has no idea to renegotiate it. The situation is the result of Trump coming into power. 

Perhaps if Hillary Clinton was in the position, the Obama administration policy which was based on cooperation rather than conflict would have continued.

I’m afraid Trump tends to pursue conflict with Iran. We have to keep in mind that this president's foreign visit after he got elected was to Saudi Arabia as Iran's arch enemy in the region.

Let’s not forget $300 billion weapons contract was signed with Saudi Arabia making the country the third largest spender when it comes to weapons after the US and China. 

So all these signals are out there and I don’t believe that it is just symbolic but they are preparing for war with Iran. The coming into power of John Bolton a neocon warmonger is an important sign. As you know Republicans has a majority in US congress.

Of course we have the November election later in this year which would be basically an election that presents the approval and disapproval of American voters feeling towards Trump.

So even if Democrats regain seats in the House of Representatives, I don’t think there would be any change in policy. This is the sad situation Iran is facing right now. 

What can the EU alternative be if the US withdraws from JCPOA, given the fact that the investment and working condition in Iran will probably be affected as a result?  In that situation, what real guaranties can the EU offer to Iran ?

There will be a transitory period in Iran if Trump doesn’t certify the nuclear deal this May. There will be many challenges for the European if they want to pursue their own policies when it comes to this.

My prediction is that Europeans will do everything possible and they are actually doing it right now and they also have the contingency plans and they are having this for 2 years now ever since Trump nominated himself as a candidate for the presidency in 2015 and Europeans had enough time to come up with contingency plans in order to deal with the US possible exit that now seems to be very much probable.

It is possible that the contract they signed with the Iranian counterparts could actually be implemented nevertheless it is going to be quite difficult because of the financial and the banking arrangements as well as the situation that exists between EU and the US It is going to be quite difficult maybe because the parameters for such steps could be taken so that Europe would not be bullied so much or be taken hostage by the U.S. in the future.

 Maybe reneging of Trump and the exit of Washington from JCPOA would create that opportunity for EU to pursue more independent policy. Let's not forget that the biggest ally for Germany and Britain will continue to be the US in the decades to come and these are the 2 out of 3 signatories of the JCPOA from the European side.

Franc has already given some hints that perhaps the Iranian missile technology program can be negotiated- a red line for Iranian side that is never going to happen and I think that Emmanuel macron French president should come in terms with reality.     


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