However, former Afghan Foreign Minister Najibullah Lafraie says the leaking of the secret document was “deliberate” in order to prolong the presence of U.S. forces in Afghanistan after 2014.
“The disclosed document is more an evidence of the failure of the U.S. and its NATO allies in Afghanistan than a realistic assessment of the future,” Lafraie tells the Mehr News Agency.
Lafraie also says, “There cannot be peace in Afghanistan without the cooperation of its neighbors.”
Following is the text of the interview:
Q: What is your assessment of the secret report that the Taliban are set to recapture Afghanistan after foreign forces leave the country.
A: The disclosed document is more an evidence of the failure of the U.S. and its NATO allies in Afghanistan than a realistic assessment of the future. There is no doubt that President Karzai's government cannot survive without the enormous military and financial support of the West. However, the downfall of his government would not mean the return of the Taliban to power. I'm afraid if a political solution is not found, the consequences would be worse than that; that is, Afghanistan becoming the battleground of proxy wars of regional powers (another imposed "civil war" worse than the one in the 1990s).
There is an aspect of the disclosed document you mention that has not been discussed in the media. I believe the chances are that its "leak" was deliberate. It seems that the Obama administration is moving from the strategy favored by General David Petraeus in 2009 debate ("troop surge") to that favored by Vice President Joe Biden (reliance of a smaller number of Special Forces, night raids, and aerial bombardments). If that is the case, several thousand of American forces would need to remain in Afghanistan after the withdrawal of the bulk of the troops by 2014. How can you justify that? The preparation of the ground for that seems to have started by raising the prospect of Taliban's return to power.
Q: What is the role of neighbors in securing Afghanistan?
A: There cannot be peace in Afghanistan without the cooperation of its neighbors. For a long lasting peace in Afghanistan, there is first and foremost the need for an intra-Afghan dialogue. The outcome of that process, however, needs to be endorsed by both the regional powers as well as trans-regional powers.
Q: What is your prediction about the future of Afghanistan?
A: Unfortunately it is difficult to see light at the end of the tunnel. If the U.S. were ready to withdraw all its troops from Afghanistan and the regional powers stopped their interferences, I believe Afghans would be able to overcome their difference after some tough negotiations. However, I'm not sure the U.S. is really ready to leave Afghanistan for the Afghans; and that the neighbors, especially Pakistan, are ready to stop their interferences. The geostrategic location of Afghanistan--close not only to resources-rich Central Asia but also to U.S. rivals China and Iran--may make the Americans to hatch new plots for many years to come. Likewise, many of the regional powers seem to be interested more in their own interests than peace in Afghanistan (unfortunately not realizing that peace in Afghanistan is in fact in their own interest as well).
Najibullah Lafraie was the Foreign Minister of Afghanistan between 1992 and 1996. He is now a lecturer in political studies at the University of Otago in Dunedin, New Zealand.
JH/PA
END
MNA
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