US' necessity to provoke war with China

Tensions between the US and China over the self-ruled island intensified following a provocative visit there in August by Nancy Pelosi, speaker of the US House of Representatives. It prompted large-scale Chinese military drills around the island territory as well as a declaration by US President Joe Biden to defend Taiwan.

Her visit infuriated China, which has sovereignty over the self-ruled Chinese Taipei and has publicly stated that it may take it by force one day, if necessary.

Under the “one China” policy, nearly all countries across the globe, the US included, recognize Beijing’s sovereignty over Chinese Taipei. 

Washington, however, engaged in direct contact with the secessionist government in Taipei, in violation of its own stated policy. The US also supplies Taipei with massive amounts of armaments.

Recently, General Mike Minihan, head of Air Mobility Command, sent a memo to the officers he commands that predicts the United States will be at war with China in two years and tells them to get ready to prep by firing "a clip" at a target, and "aim for the head".

Gen. Minihan said, “I hope I am wrong. My gut tells me will fight in 2025.”

To know more about the issue, we reached out to an American geopolitical researcher Brian Berletic. 

Here is the full text of our interview with him:

Don't you think that this is just the tip of the iceberg? and the US has planned much more for China?

The United States has spent decades trying and failing to encircle and contain China, from the CIA training Tibetan separatists in the 1950s, Washington's backing of the Republic of China on Taiwan, the Vietnam War, all the way up to the US military presence in Japan and South Korea. The US is out of time as China grows economically and militarily, therefore it is not a fear of China provoking a war by 2025, it is the necessity of the US to provoke one before the disparity between a rising China and a declining US closes the door on any possibility of a US victory amid a US-Chinese conflict. 

We already see that the US policy in Ukraine has cost so much for the world economy and people, especially in poor countries. Can such a stance towards a big economy and military power like China even leave a much more negative effect on people of the world? 

A potential US-led conflict with China would include sanctions, disrupt global trade and set back the global economy in ways many times more devastating than the current conflict in Ukraine. US policymakers have openly suggested they would deliberately target and impede Chinese trade and since most nations around the world count China as their largest trade partner, this would impact virtually every other nation on Earth. 

From time to time, we hear about the possible beginning of WWIII, do you see any possibility for it?

In many ways, we are already witnessing a World War. The US through proxies kills Russians in Ukraine and Chinese engineers in Pakistan, attacks Chinese infrastructure and factories across South Asia and the Pacific and invest millions of dollars annually in political subversion targeting both Russia and China as well as their allies along their peripheries. The only question is whether or not this fighting will escalate toward a direct conflict between the US and either Russia or China (or both) after it becomes clear Washington's proxies are insufficient to achieve its geopolitical objectives. The possibility is high since Washington has made it clear it will not tolerate a world that it is not the dominant power within. 

It seems that the US has chosen confrontation instead of rivalry with its major rivals. Don't you think so? 

The US seeks to maintain primacy over an increasingly multipolar world. It wants to subordinate Russia and China, the latter of which has a population larger than the G7 combined and certainly a larger industrial base than many nations in the West. This is an unreasonable objective for Washington which has resulted in increasingly disruptive policies focused on confrontation rather than competition and cooperation. It is ultimately an unsustainable policy and it is just a matter of how much damage the current circles of power in Washington cause worldwide before more constructive interests displace them and find a productive role for the US and the West among the world's nations rather than insisting on imposing US dominance upon them all. 

Interview by Zahra Mirzafarjouyan