EU unlikely to be able to keep JCPOA alive

His decision have left the future of the internationally signed Nuclear Deal with Iran in question.

All the other signatories of the deal (China, Russia, France, UK and Germany and Iran) has expressed their concerns about Trump’s irresponsible decision that can intensify the tensions.

Iran has announced if the European signatories of the deal can guarantee Iran’s interest under the deal, Iran will remain committed to its obligations under the JCPOA otherwise it will leave the JCPOA, too.

To discuss the issue with China, Russia and the Europeans, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif has visited Beijing, Moscow and Brussel during the last week.

Despite the EU promises to keep the JCPOA alive without the US, there are some major concerns about the EU promises for Iran. The first one is the real good will of the EU and the other one is the EU real capabilities to be able to keep the deal alive.

As the Europeans are the closest allies of the US, many in Iran are of this view that Washington and its close European allies have divided the task to put pressure on Tehran to succumb to their demands.

Others in Iran doubt the EU can challenge the White House decision on the JCPOA even if they actually decide to keep the deal alive due to bellow reasons and challenge the US:

-While the EU is a major economic power, it is not a united entity politically, economically and socially because of internal rivalry and differences among the member states and gaps and differences have been increasing over the recent years due to the EU economic crisis, refuge crises, the US President’s unilateral policies and rising of the rightist groups in Europe.

-The ones who are going to do business with Iran and invest in Iran are the European private sectors and governments cannot force them to work with Iran. Since implementation of the JCPOA over the past 3 years, despite European governments’ efforts major EU firms and financial entities have already refused to work with Iran due to irresponsible behavior of the US administration and possible US punishments. Therefore nobody expects these private sectors to endanger themselves.

-Regardless of the EU's dependence on the US politically and for its security, the volume of the EU trade with the US is not comparable with the Union’s trade volume with Iran. And there is a great interdependency between the transatlantic economies, as well. Any EU economic retaliatory act against the US to save the JCPOA will be counterproductive and face the US reaction which can finally end in trade war. It is totally unreasonable to think that the EU will endanger its economy by triggering a trade war with the US for Iran’s sake.