In the article “The Coronavirus Won’t Kill the Islamic Republic", published on the Foreign Policy, pollack says despite some deficiencies in Iran’s battle against the new pandemic -- known as the COVID-19 -- not only is not the Islamic Republic collapsing, but its conservative forces are becoming stronger.
Pollack, who has penned a comprehensive book on the Iran-US relations, first refers to Iran’s rank as the seventh country with the most cases of infection in the world. Then, he elaborates on the impact of the US sanctions on Iran's economy and the country's social conditions, explaining how the sanctions have left economic costs to the government and even to the wider social impact on Iranian society.
Regarding the negative effects of the US sanctions on Iran, the former CIA analyst raises the question of whether the coronavirus outbreak could lead to the collapse of the Islamic Republic of Iran.
His answer is no, because he believes that a significant portion of the Iranian people continue to fully support the country's leaders.
Pollack also adds that there is currently no indication that the pandemic has undermined the capabilities of the government in Iran.
The full loyalty of the armed forces to the establishment, as well as the growing strength of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, is another highlight of Kenneth Pollack's article. He points out the reasons why the possibility of any change and revolution in Iran is unlikely:
Firstly, no revolution takes place without widespread protests, and now, due to the coronavirus crisis, the likelihood of protests and marches has diminished. According to the author, COVID-19 has even made the protest movements in Lebanon and Iraq less likely.
Secondly, the conservative groups in Iran have shown a more responsible general response to the crisis than the pragmatic groups. The article delineates the IRGC's response to the outbreak as much more appropriate and timelier than that of the others.
In the end, the author concludes that it is unlikely that the crisis of the coronavirus prevalence will lead to the weakening of establishment in Iran; actually, contrary to this idea, the coronavirus could even boost the conservative groups in Iran.
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