Recent polls in Pennsylvania have raised concerns about Trumps:
As The Hill reported, a new poll shows former Vice President Joe Biden has opened up a big lead over President Trump in Pennsylvania, a Rust Belt battleground state that will play a pivotal role in determining the outcome of the 2020 election. A state-level survey by Quinnipiac University finds Biden at 53 percent and Trump at 42 percent in a head-to-head match-up in Pennsylvania. Trump has a narrow 4-point advantage among male respondents, but Biden holds a 24 -point lead among women -- 60 percent to 36 percent. Among white voters, Biden leads 49 percent to 45 percent, but he leads among nonwhite voters by a whopping 70 percent to 27 percent. Trump and Biden pulled at least 90 percent support from within their own parties, while the former vice president held a 14 -point advantage among independents, leading 51 percent to 37 percent.
“More than half of Pennsylvania voters say they are better off financially than they were in 2016,” said Mary Snow, the polling analyst for Quinnipiac University. “But the economy isn’t giving President Donald Trump an edge in an early read of the very key Keystone State.”
Trump edged out Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton in Pennsylvania by less than 1 point in 2016, making him the first GOP presidential nominee to carry the state since 1988. Trump also won in two other traditionally blue states -- Michigan and Wisconsin -- that have made up the Democratic "blue wall" in the Rust Belt and Midwest. Those three states will be a central focus for both parties in the 2020 general election. Biden, who is from Scranton, Pa., held his first campaign rally in Pennsylvania last month at a union hall. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) also leads in a head-to-head match-up against Trump in Pennsylvania, 50 percent to 43 percent. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) held a smaller lead over the president, 47 percent to 44 percent. Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) and Trump split in their hypothetical head-to-head contest, at 45 percent each. Trump is essentially running even with former Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-Texas) and South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg (D). Trump’s approval rating is deep underwater in Pennsylvania -- 54 percent of respondents disapprove of him while 42 percent support him.
White voters are evenly divided over the job Trump has done, but nonwhite voters disapprove by a margin of 74 percent to 23 percent. A slim majority of men approve of Trump's job performance while 62 percent of women disapprove. Still, 54 percent of voters in the state say they’re better off financially than they were in 2016. Only 21 percent said they are worse off. Seventy-one percent of Pennsylvanians describe the economy as “excellent” or “good.” The Quinnipiac University survey of 978 Pennsylvania voters was conducted May 9-14 and has a 4.2 percentage point margin of error.
What are polls in Florida?
An overview of the recent polls in Florida also shows that Donald Trump does not have a good status in this important and decisive state. Florida Residents' opposition to Donald Trump's re-election as president of the United States is the worst possible news for him. In the 2016 presidential elections, Trump won the rival Democratic Party in states like Florida, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan. However, it seems that if the Presidential elections are held today in the United States, these important and decisive states are becoming signs of the defeat of Trump.
As Politico reported, Donald Trump is in trouble in Florida, a state that’s crucial to his reelection hopes. Just 40 percent of Florida voters said they believed the president should be reelected, while 53 percent were opposed to a second term, according to a new Bendixen & Amandi International poll. Trump’s approval ratings were also poor, with 43 percent having a favorable impression of Trump, and 52 percent viewing him unfavorably — and 46 percent very unfavorably. Trump’s approval ratings look even worse when compared with the man he helped make Florida governor, Ron DeSantis, who has a 50 percent approval rating while only 23 percent disapprove.
“Trump is in trouble,” pollster Fernand Amandi said, noting that 23 percent of all Florida Republicans said he doesn’t deserve reelection. “When that many people from your own party don’t support you, it means you have to spend more time consolidating your base.” With numbers like that in the nation’s largest swing state — one that Republicans typically need to win to capture the White House — Amandi says it underscores that Florida is in play for Democrats, despite the party losing the past three top-of-the-ticket races in the state. “This idea that we need to re-evaluate Florida as a swing state is utterly disproved by this poll,” said Amandi, who conducted the survey.
The former president’s stature among Florida Democrats has given former Vice President Joe Biden an edge in the crowded primary, where Amandi says the “Obama effect” is reflected in his relatively strong standing among nonwhite voters. Biden would enter the Democratic presidential primary as the clear front-runner in Florida, according to the poll. Biden is supported by 26 percent of Democrats, followed by Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders at 11 percent and California Sen. Kamala Harris at 9 percent. The other 14 Democratic candidates and hopefuls barely registered. And 46 percent were undecided.
“Biden begins with a groundswell of support,” said Amandi. “Biden has a solid base of support that cuts across all demographics — age, race, and ideology — in all corners of the state.” Amandi, who typically surveys for Democratic candidates, did not poll head-to-head matchups between Democrats and Trump. Biden’s lead over Sanders is bigger among African-American and Hispanic voters, whose lack of support for the Vermont senator in the 2016 Democratic presidential primary helped Clinton crush him in Florida. Sanders struggled with nonwhite voters in a number of primaries, especially in the South, but his campaign has shown signs he’s reaching out to them more in 2020.
Despite having appeared on the Florida ballot in 2016, Sanders is barely ahead of Harris in the poll. Her third-place standing and near tie with Sanders for second is a sign that the relative newcomer — who has never been on a Florida ballot and has made few high-profile appearances in the state — has capitalized on earned media since her recent campaign launch. When Democrats were first asked an open-ended question about their candidate of choice, Harris was named by 4 percent, Sanders by 5 percent and Biden by 11 percent. All others were at 1 percent.
As the only black woman in the race, Harris could also be well-positioned for a boost from the state’s African-American voters, who can account for about 28 percent of the ballots cast in a Democratic primary. Harris’ standing now resembles that of Andrew Gillum, who rocketed from unknown to a rising star in the Democrats’ 2018 gubernatorial primary due to the strong backing of black voters. The only other black top-tier candidate in the race, New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker is polling at 1 percent. Amandi said the poll also calls into question whether Florida Democrats have to veer to the left, with 39 percent describing themselves as moderate, 32 percent saying they’re progressive or liberal, and 21 percent calling themselves conservative.
“There’s this conventional wisdom that this election is a referendum on the rise of the progressives in Florida,” Amandi said. “But Democratic voters aren’t embracing the liberal or progressive label.”
Will the game change in Pennsylvania and Florida?
What is certain is that US President Donald Trump has about a year to change the equation in Florida and Pennsylvania. The publication of recent polls in the state of Florida suggests that Trump will face a tough run in the 2020 presidential election. If the president of the United States can not repeat the results of the 2016 presidential election in these two fatal states, Biden (likely to be a Democrat nominee) may well be in competition with Trump. The breakdown is a nightmare for him.
MNA/TT