The next European Parliament will be formed after the UK leaves the EU in March, and the numbers of MEPs will be reduced to 705 from currently 751. The remaining 27 seats are thus to be redistributed between members.
We should note that the European political perspective has undergone significant changes over the last five years. Such shifts will be normally reflected in the next European Parliament as well and are going to affect European policymaking.
Accordingly, dbresearch published an article written by Kevin Koerner. We read in this article; “Our calculations, based on current national polls, suggest a loss of EP seats for most centrist pro-European groups and a visible gain for anti-EU and EU(ro)sceptic alliances. Polls suggest that the Christian Democrats (EPP) would remain the largest group in the EP with 25.2% (-3.9 pp).
Socialists and Democrats (S&D) would bear the heaviest losses (-5.9 pp) and only reach 19.1% of seats. According to our poll-based calculations, the liberal ALDE could potentially gain 10.5% to 13.5%, depending on whether French President Macron's En Marche will join the alliance. The far-right ENF could gain the most (+3.4 pp) and increase its share of seats to 8.1%. Together with the EU-sceptic EFDD (6.5%), ECR (7.1%) and other anti-EU parties, they could reach more than ¼ of seats in the next EP.”
It continues; “Strengthened EU (ro) sceptic parties would have a substantial impact on policymaking in the EU over the next five years.” Koener then argues that “Anti-EU parties might not find the broad agreement required to build a united movement in the EP; but their potential strengthening and closer collaboration would still increase the complexity in the EP, hamper voting and decision making and contribute to further tensions and disputes in an increasingly disunited Union.”
Europe’s Nationalist parties know well that in the event of the inability of the traditional European parties, including socialists, social democrats, and conservatives to revive public participation in the 2019 European Parliamentary elections, the opposition front including the opponents of the United Europe and the Eurozone will find it easier to win this political battle.
Over the past few years, far-right movements have become active players in countries like Austria, Germany, Sweden, and France. Currently, one of the main concerns of European authorities is the impact of the European Parliamentary elections on the reorganization of the right-wing extremists in the EU member states.
If nationalists can win European parliamentary elections, they will be able to play a major role in shaping the political future of the European countries. In this case, there is no guarantee that the traditional and pro-EU parties in countries such as Germany and France will survive.
Undoubtedly, European politicians such as the German Chancellor Angela Merkel, and the French President Emmanuel Macron, and senior European officials such as Jean-Claude Juncker, will seek to maximize public participation in the European Parliamentary election. In this way, they attempt to prevent the nationalists from standing high above others in the European Parliament. Under such circumstances, the conflict between traditional parties and anti-Euro movements in Europe is worth seeing!
MNA/TT