Former top nuclear negotiator Hassan Rowhani can represent the views of the “moderate” reformists and conservatives in the presidential campaign, thus he is “preferably welcomed by the Justice and Development Party,” Nobakht told the Mehr News Agency.
Nobakht said the result of the 2009 presidential election depends on many “ifs” which are not still clear.
He said these variables are: whether all the conservative groups will agree on the candidacy of the incumbent President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad or they may not reach a consensus on Ahamdinejad and another person will also become a candidate.
Or how the reformists will contest the election, whether Mahdi Karrubi and Mohammad-Reza Aref will both run for president in the reformist camp, or whether Khatami will finally enter the stage; whether all reformist groups and parties will agree on a single candidate, he added.
Nobakht did not rule out the emergence of a “third faction” in the elections.
“The emergence of a third faction is not ruled out but the effectiveness of this faction dependans on how it will emerge and how it will take shape.”
If the third faction is formed based on the will of conservative and reformist groups or even their “tactical consensus”, it can emerge as victorious in the presidential election, Nobakht stated.
He said the third faction is highly unlikely to succeed if it rejects both factions. Even if it succeeds it will need the cooperation of the two factions for running the country, He added
The former MP said it is possible that the third faction will be formed as a coalition of reformists and conservatives who are politically aligned with the views of former pragmatic president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani.
Such a possibility will be the “initial form” of the third faction which would also have a “great chance” for victory, Nobakhat, who was a strong proponent of Rafsanjani in the 2005 presidential election, added.
Rafsanjani, chairman of the Expediency Council, lost to Ahmadinejad in the second round of the 2005 presidential election.
Economic turmoil, a vehicle for change
Nobakht who is trained in economy argued that economic problems felt in the society, especially by the working class can cause a change in power. However, he insisted that this change of power does not necessarily mean that a “conservative figure” or a reformist will win the presidency.
He said some of the conservatives and reformists have a similar view about the government’s economic performance which can lead to lead to a coalition between them.
Nobakht refused to answer directly whether Hassan Rowhani has accepted the Justice and Development Party’s nomination.
He said since the 2009 presidential vote is a “fateful” election, the Moderation and Development Party has launched overt and covert efforts to have an active participation in the vote.
The party aims to change and ameliorate the current situation, he added.
Nobakht went on to say that the party has held discussions with influential figures about presidential elections.
He said, since Rowhani is capable of reflecting the views of the two rival factions, he is “preferably nominated by the Justice and Development Party.”
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