For the time being, it is assumed that it had been purposeful and there is a method behind the madness. We will collect what is evident in a set to come to an overall image of the situation, just as the detectives in a crime case do.
The scene is well-preserved by the media. An apparently fanatic Muslim young police officer shoots Russian ambassador to Turkey when he was addressing a meeting in a museum. The young police succeeds to implement the plan neatly by virtue of being a police officer in the museum; however, his hysteric words after shooting the ambassador communicate the similitude of a young sympathizer of the people in Aleppo trying to take revenge by his own hands. The media in the west and those supporting Takfirists would rejoice to propagate such an image of a lone wolf acting on his own. Simple as that.
But the scene is replete with evidence to the contrary, especially with the Aleppo liberated; the young assassin clearly declares that he seeks to take revenge of Aleppo on Russia by killing the ambassador. This would be plausible, but only when we ignore the important image of the west now frustrated and angered by the events in Aleppo; that alone would precipitate the harsh reaction in violent attire of an assassination.
The second evident issue is that the west at large and Zionist regime along with their allies in reactionary Arab regimes of the region had been despairing in the prospect of Aleppo. The common denominator of the assassin and Takfirists and their supporters is their consternation of the defeat in Aleppo. This should not be downplayed as a potential contributing factor.
Vladimir Putin of Russia however kept exemplary equanimity upon hearing the news of the assassination; “this assassination manifestly is a provocative act to weaken the nascent process of détente with Turkey and to undermine the peace process in Syria; our response will however be to intensify the battle against terrorism, and the assassins will taste the bitterness of the response,” Mr. Putin said resolutely.
The assassination, particularly just days after Syrian army along with Russian support, brought some solace to Aleppo by evicting terrorist fighters, sends clear messages by Washington and its allies to Moscow, albeit with a tinge of violence. The message was received by Kremlin with utmost care. Putin asked Recep Tayyip Erdoğan to have the possible forces behind the scenario identified; he would be naïve if he accepted the lone-wolf scenario, which is at best flimsy in this case. And he did not in practice.
The ‘truth-finding’ committee of security and intelligence agents are in Ankara to scrutinize the case of Karlov assassination and will definitely shed more light to the some of the darker interiors of the case.
Still in the same vein, the trilateral meeting in Moscow which has a novelty of participating Turkey as one of the staunch supporters of terrorist factions in Syria to a meeting to hit the exact play the west had been performing on Syria; to lure Turkey to a scenario which would bring stability to Syria, where Iran is also a player with better position on the ground, would be a possible potential cause of the decision to undermine the whole scene in one way or the other. The assassination would serve the assassin and his clique of supporters and ideologues in improving the moral of the terrorists, now in a desperate situation in the brink of annihilation, and also through to hit the improving relations of Turkey and Russia and its possible workings in changing the situation in Syria.
Special Envoy of the Secretary-General for Syria, Staffan de Mistura will attend a conference the next month; the assassination would be intended to undermine this conference, with the objective being to mount pressures on Moscow to make more concessions on the negotiation table.
The last point which would contribute to the assassination (and probably the most plausible cause) is infiltration in Turkey’s police and intelligence forces by Takfirist sympathizers, which has virtually rendered the system weak in responding more agilely to pitfalls and the gaps; the same weakness made perforated borders with Syria for fresh recruited terrorists easy way to infiltrate the country and challenge the security arrangements not quite infrequently.
The upcoming days will be tough for Russia and Syrian government, since the western supporters of Takfirists would be restless to enter action to counteract the Aleppo defeat, with even more effrontery. Only time will show us.