One of Joe Biden's promises during the 2020 elections was to revive the nuclear agreement. The agreement was formed during Obama's time and Trump illegally and unilaterally withdrew from it in 2018. Biden criticized Trump's actions and promised to revive the JCPOA if he went to the White House.
However, more than two years into Biden's presidency, his administration has not been able to fulfill this promise. It appears that as time goes by, the prospects of reaching an agreement become more ambiguous and difficult for the US.
The Mystery of Rob Malley
The latest obstacle to reviving the JCPOA has added to previous obstacles. The secretive dismissal of Robert Malley has raised many questions and uncertainties, and for certain reasons, the US government is unwilling to disclose much information about this case. This extensive and deep secrecy has even angered Congress. So far, the government has only stated that Malley had difficulties in protecting classified documents and his security clearance was revoked. The important and thought-provoking point is that Robert Malley was one of the key players in Biden's administration in advancing Washington's diplomacy towards Tehran. His mysterious dismissal has made the situation of reviving the JCPOA even more challenging for the Biden administration.
All roads lead to the 2024 elections
Another obstacle that the Biden administration faces in reaching an agreement with Iran is the crucial matter of the 2024 presidential elections in the country and the competition between Democrats and Republicans.
The Biden administration does not want to be accused by its rivals of giving concessions to Iran. Toughness on Iran has always been one of the yardsticks for measuring elections in America. Powerful and wealthy lobbies in America, many of which are associated with the Israeli regime, have turned the pressure on Iran into a competitive tool among presidential candidates. The candidate who is more anti-Iran receives more support from these circles, even if this policy is illogical and against US national interests.
Ukraine war factor
The Ukraine war has greatly affected many calculations and international relations. The US and Europe are using their utmost power to prevent Russia's victory. Without providing reliable evidence and documents, they have accused Iran of providing military support, particularly drones, to Russia in this war, thereby complicating the revival of the JCPOA in some way.
Of course, Washington knows better than anyone else that these cases are not related to each other and the solution to the Ukraine war also lies in diplomacy, but America's interest lies in prolonging the war.
Accusing Iran and complicating the revival of the JCPOA are also part of a larger puzzle in the West's confrontation with Russia.
Ensuring the nature of Iran's nuclear program
The whole issue of Iran's nuclear case and the controversy surrounding it is based on a big lie. That lie is nothing but Iran's attempt to build nuclear weapons. But Americans themselves know well that Iran is not seeking to produce atomic weapons. On July 11, US sources announced that according to the assessment of US intelligence agencies, Iran is not seeking nuclear weapons but has increased its nuclear activities. These findings are consistent with previous US assessments of Iran's nuclear program. This assessment, which is also consistent with reality, reassures Americans that Iran's nuclear program is peaceful and does not pose a threat to them. Under such circumstances, naturally, America does not have much inclination to revive the JCPOA.
Confusing crossroads
The next, and of course, the key point is that Americans have been experiencing strategic confusion for a long time. On one hand, they seek to contain and weaken Iran, and on the other, they claim they want to reach an agreement with Iran, an agreement that they say will alleviate economic pressure on Iran.
This is a contradictory issue and it seems that Americans do not have a clear answer for it.
The correct strategy of the Iranian team
In the previous Iranian government, the negotiation team's strategy was clearly to prioritize "any agreement over no agreement".
This strategy has changed in the new government, and the Iranian negotiation team is not willing to give in to any kind of agreement. The firmness of the Iranian negotiation team against US demands and refusal to agree to any terms hinders Washington from achieving the benefits of the JCPOA.
The Americans want to give less and take more, so it is natural that such an approach hinders reaching an agreement. Of course, by resorting to shameful games, they try to blame Iran and portray it as the culprit. The firmness of the Iranian negotiation team is interpreted by Americans as a deadlock, while Iran has shown necessary flexibility.
Overall, it must be said that today's situation in negotiations and their failure is largely due to internal problems and political competition within the United States.
By: Sadra Torabi
First published in Tehran Times