Turkey will hold a snap elections after June 7 only brought about a result which President Erdoğan, the leader of ruling AKP feared much: a dire situation which divided the seats among all major parties as well as less-represented pro-Kurdish HDP. Since then, Turkish politics has been facing terrorism, instability, threat of ISIL, and renewed clash with Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) after almost 2 years of peace. To find out more about the situation, Payman Yazdani of Mehr News International Service asked Osman Faruk Loğoğlu about the snap elections and possible surprise results, which Mr. Loğoğlu predicted some:
How do you assess the possible results based on latest polling?
This election is taking place under unusual circumstances: A snap election coming shortly after the June 7 voting. Terror attacks that have since become rampant; President Erdoğan is running an overt campaign for AKP; and all political parties are making big promises to the youth, retired, laborers and farmers. The polls envision results similar to those of June 7. With the exception of one poll, all others foresee a coalition. All polls make AKP the first winner. Still we may be in for a surprise, with AKP losing more ground compared to June 7. But at the end of the day, we are looking at a 4-party parliament and a coalition.
Mrs Merkel's visit to Turkey before election has raised concerns among Turkish elites, making them sign a petition. What are the reasons behind these concerns?
The reason for the petition by a group of intellectuals was that they interpreted Merkel's visit and its timing as a support for President Erdoğan and for the AKP. This concern was exacerbated by the EU decision to postpone the announcement of the Turkey Progress Report - expected to severely criticize the current state of affairs in Turkey - for fear that it would draw a strong reaction from President Erdoğan.
Is there any possibility of AKP victory via some minor frauds that can affect the results of the election?
Irregularities always occur in all elections in all countries. The November 1 election is going to take place under tense conditions and security arrangements will be tight. Naturally, all opposition parties, big and small, have gotten smarter about possible fraud and have developed measures to counter and prevent them. The critical point is that in some election districts (provinces) votes as small as less than 1,000 decided the winners of seats in the parliament last June. So attention will be particularly focused on these provinces.
Dr. Osman Faruk Loğoğlu is a Turkish diplomat and the former Turkish ambassador to the US, having served from 2001 to 2005.
Interview by: Payman Yazdani