Drawing on U.S. and regional intelligence, the positions of Persian Gulf Cooperation Council (PGCC) countries—particularly Saudi Arabia—and Iraq’s role, the future of these talks can be anticipated.
Amid regional tensions, including the ongoing aggression in Yemen and reports of a potential ground offensive against Ansarullah and the governing authority in Sanaa, coupled with the growing influence of regional actors, the negotiations face complex challenges. However, they may lead to new scenarios based on a balance of interests and strategic pressures.
With reports emerging about the possibility of a political resolution to Iran’s nuclear crisis, it is noteworthy that PGCC countries—Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Oman—have adopted a unified stance in support of the Iran-U.S. talks, albeit conditional on security and economic guarantees. According to credible reports, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar have refused to allow Israel to use their airspace for military strikes on Iran, signaling their desire to avoid direct conflict with Iran.
This position stems from economic concerns, as PGCC countries rely on the stability of oil markets and critical infrastructure, which could be targeted by Iran or its allies, such as Ansarullah in Yemen, in the event of heightened tensions—particularly with ongoing U.S. strikes on Sanaa. These countries also view the negotiations as an opportunity to achieve regional stability, supporting their development agendas, such as Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030, which aims to diversify the economy and reduce oil dependency.
According to The New York Times, the PGCC’s support for the talks marks a significant shift in the region compared to 2015, when Saudi Arabia strongly opposed the Iran nuclear deal, labeling it “weak” and accusing it of bolstering Tehran’s influence. Today, these countries back dialogue that restricts Iran’s nuclear program and prevents a regional war that would threaten their economic and security stability.
Saudi Arabia has shown support for the nuclear talks, emphasizing its backing for diplomatic efforts to resolve regional and international disputes. This stance reflects a notable improvement in Saudi-Iran relations since the China-brokered normalization agreement in 2023. The visit of Saudi Defense Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman to Tehran on April 17, 2025—described as the “highest-level visit in decades”—was a symbolic and practical step to strengthen bilateral dialogue and promote regional stability.
During the visit, Prince Khalid met with Major General Mohammad Bagheri, Iran’s Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces, and delivered a message from King Salman bin Abdulaziz to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. According to IRNA, the discussions focused on advancing defense ties, regional cooperation to promote peace and stability, and combating terrorism. Conducted ahead of the second round of nuclear talks in Rome, the visit underscored Saudi Arabia’s intent to play an active role in de-escalating tensions, particularly in light of U.S. and Israeli threats to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities if the talks fail.
The motivations behind the visit are multifaceted: First, Saudi Arabia seeks to safeguard its economic security, as any military escalation could jeopardize oil infrastructure, as seen in previous attacks attributed to Iran’s allies. Second, Riyadh aims to bolster its diplomatic influence as a regional power, especially after successfully reducing tensions in Yemen through rapprochement with Iran. Third, Saudi Arabia seeks to balance its relations with the U.S. and Iran to avoid being drawn into conflicts that do not serve its interests, recognizing that Israel’s expansionist agenda threatens global security.
While Iraqis are preoccupied with debates over inviting Ahmed Al-Sharaa to the upcoming Arab League summit in Baghdad and reports of the Iraqi prime minister’s secret visit to Doha to meet Al-Sharaa, Iraq plays a diplomatic role in supporting the nuclear talks, publicly endorsing dialogue between Iran and the U.S. With close ties to both nations, Iraq sees the talks’ success as an opportunity to enhance regional stability, benefiting its security and economy.
Baghdad, which previously hosted Saudi-Iran dialogues and nuclear talks before the 2015 agreement, aims to solidify its role as a neutral regional player, strengthening its diplomatic standing. Iraq stands to gain from the talks in several ways: First, a successful nuclear deal could lift sanctions on Iran, boosting bilateral trade with Iraq, particularly in energy and goods. Second, reduced regional tensions would lower the risk of conflicts spilling into Iraq, especially given the presence of U.S. forces. Third, regional stability would support Iraq’s reconstruction efforts, which depend on regional and international investment.
According to U.S. intelligence cited by Axios, there are divisions within the Trump administration regarding Iran, with hardliners advocating military options and diplomats favoring dialogue. Conversely, Israeli intelligence documents leaked in October 2024 reveal preparations for strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, complicating the talks. Iran has shown conditional flexibility, such as discussing the transfer of uranium stockpiles to Russia, but remains firm on its right to a nuclear fuel cycle.
Three possible scenarios for the future of the negotiations are:
Comprehensive Agreement: Involving stringent restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for phased sanctions relief, which appears plausible based on the current climate and reports.
Failure of Talks: Due to unacceptable U.S. demands, potentially pushing Iran to accelerate its nuclear program and increasing the risk of military conflict.
Interim Agreement: Focused on issues like uranium transfers and halting or reducing enrichment levels, deferring major disputes, which currently seems the most realistic scenario.
In conclusion, the nuclear negotiations face complex challenges, but the support of key Arab states, led by Saudi Arabia, and Iraq’s role as a diplomatic facilitator increase the likelihood of success. Through its defense minister’s visit to Tehran, Saudi Arabia seeks to ensure regional stability, preserving its economic interests and strengthening its diplomatic role. Iraq benefits from potential stability and trade with Iran. Based on intelligence, achieving a comprehensive agreement is challenging but not impossible, and diplomatic dialogue remains the best option to prevent an escalation that could plunge the region into a catastrophic war.
MNA/
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