Publish Date: 11 May 2010 - 21:03

TEHRAN, May 11 (MNA) -- These days there is much talk about the high probability that a major earthquake is due to strike Tehran.

Some of the areas of the metropolis most likely to incur severe damage in a major earthquake have even been identified.

The Tehran governor’s office has also taken some preparatory steps, such as holding earthquake drills in which tent hospitals were set up outside Tehran.

And the president has announced that he believes that about five million citizens must be convinced to move out of Tehran in order to save lives and improve the efficiency of the city’s response to a major earthquake.

However, it is unreasonable to expect five million people to leave Tehran.

The city is currently home to about 10 million people and relocating about five million citizens would be neither practical nor economical.

Even now, about a quarter of a million people immigrate to Tehran annually in search of employment.

A number of proposals have been made, such as relocating the capital to another part of Iran less prone to major earthquakes, moving large military garrisons and the headquarters and factories of major companies like Iran Khodro and Saipa to other cities, taking measures to strictly enforce building codes, and formulating a plan to quickly relocate residences and workplaces sitting directly on top of fault lines.

The suggestion to move residences and workplaces from areas most likely to incur severe damage in a major earthquake may seem odd, but if a quake were to strike Tehran, the death toll and the economic losses would far outweigh the cost of relocation.

The 2003 earthquake in Bam in southeastern Iran, which caused about 30,000 deaths and great material damage, should serve as an example.

The Tehran Municipality has started a project to renovate the old and congested neighborhoods of south Tehran, but the pace of the implementation of the plan should be accelerated.

Seismologists have warned that it is very likely that Tehran will be hit by a major earthquake in the future.

And since earthquakes occur in cycles and the last major earthquake in Tehran occurred in 1830, it seems that a big one is due.

Taking all this into consideration, it is clear that Tehran must make serious efforts to prepare for the big one.

PA/HG
END
MNA