Ever since Israel’s brazen assault on the Iranian consulate building in the Syrian capital, Damascus, earlier this week, resulting in the deaths of seven Iranian IRGC members, the specter of conflict between Israel and Iran looms ominously, casting a shadow of uncertainty over the region.
Recent events, including Israel's explicit threats against Iran, especially following the regime’s October 7 attack on the Gaza Strip, have only served to exacerbate tensions that have long simmered beneath the surface.
While Israel's belligerent rhetoric and sporadic military actions suggest a readiness for conflict, confidential assessments reveal a nuanced calculus at play behind closed doors.
New information obtained by the Tehran Times about private meetings between some high-ranking Israeli officials and Michael Makovsky, the CEO of the Jewish Institute for National Security of America (JINSA), shed light on Israel's longstanding desire to provoke a war with Iran, even before the October attack on the Gaza Strip, as well as underlying apprehensions and the delicate balancing act it must navigate to avoid triggering a wider regional conflict.
During a private meeting on June 16, 2023, before the October 7 attack, Daniel Gold, head of the Israeli Directorate of Defense Research & Development (DDR&D), discussed Israel's considerations regarding the possibility of war with Iran. Insights into the capabilities of defense systems such as Iron Dome, Arrow, and Laser highlighted Israel's strategic concerns and efforts to enhance its defensive capabilities, potentially in anticipation of heightened tensions or conflict with Iran.
Additionally, discussions surrounding threats from Lebanon and Gaza signaled Israel's proactive stance in addressing immediate security challenges posed by neighboring adversaries, potentially laying the groundwork for a broader military campaign against Iran and its allies in the region.
During a separate private meeting on June 18, 2023, Yaakov Amidror, a former security advisor to Israel, emphasized the importance of understanding America's position regarding a potential Israeli strike on Iranian soil. He highlighted the complexities faced by the U.S. government in aligning its interests with those of Israel while avoiding direct involvement in potential military plans.
He also touched upon America's potential response, emphasizing that America must ensure international diplomatic support for the Zionist regime, and re-provisioning is equally crucial. “In my view, if Tehran crosses the red line, the U.S. may not even issue a warning. It's vital for America to publicly affirm its support for Israel, but I doubt the Biden administration will take such action,” he said while discussing the day after Israel’s strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities.
In another private meeting held on June 7, 2023, General Tal Kelman, an Israeli Air Force General who has been chosen to ready Israel for possible war against Iran and to lead that war, shared insights with the director of the American think tank and Effi Defrin, in charge of international cooperation in the Zionist regime's army in the occupied territories, regarding the potential Zionist regime's attack on Iranian soil.
According to the exclusive source, during the meeting, Kelman expressed concerns over the potential escalation of hostilities with Iran, acknowledging the risk of a larger regional war spiraling out of control. The fear of unintended consequences and the destabilization of the broader West Asia emerged as paramount considerations, compelling Israel to tread cautiously in its dealings with Iran.
Kelman also discussed the pivotal role of the United States in a prospective Zionist regime assault on Iranian territory, remarking, "Our attack must not escalate into a regional conflict, and America's stance is paramount in averting a major war." He added, "America's position could significantly impact Iran's nuclear program post-attack." Furthermore, he emphasized, "Israel fundamentally cannot tolerate Iran's nuclear ambitions, necessitating America's support and diplomatic prowess in countering Iran's nuclear activities. The loss of America's comprehensive support has long been a source of concern for Israel."
Moreover, this Zionist commander expressed contentment with the dismissal of Robert Malley, the special representative of the United States for Iran affairs, and the appointment of Brett McGurk as the head of the negotiating team, deeming him better suited for advancing negotiations with Iran.
The revelation underscores the complexity of Israel's strategic calculus, wherein the pursuit of the regime’s interests must be tempered by the imperatives of regional stability and international diplomacy. While Israel continues to escalate tensions and pursue a confrontational approach towards Iran, the ramifications of such actions extend far beyond the confines of bilateral relations, posing significant risks for the Israeli regime to incite a full-throated war.
Moreover, Israel's experiences in Gaza, despite its seemingly formidable military equipment, have highlighted its vulnerabilities and limitations. The losses and setbacks in Gaza serve as a stark reminder of the challenges Israel faces, even with its technological advancements. This vulnerability is further emphasized by the regime's apprehension towards conflict with Iran, as it navigates the complexities of maintaining security while avoiding the potential escalation of hostilities. The fear of engaging in a broader regional conflict underscores Israel's recognition of its own weaknesses and the potential repercussions of military action against a formidable adversary like Iran.
Despite its bellicose rhetoric and occasional displays of military prowess, Israel remains acutely aware of the potential pitfalls of unrestrained aggression against Iran. The specter of a wider regional war, with all its attendant uncertainties and ramifications, serves as a sobering deterrent, compelling Israeli policymakers to tread cautiously on the path to confrontation. This is particularly true now that Israel’s Netanyahu is at odds with President Joe Biden, who is increasingly turning up the heat on the Israeli regime for its atrocities in the Gaza Strip.
In retrospect, Israel’s assessment of its military prowess vis-à-vis Iran proved fanciful. The October 7 attack by Hamas indicated that Israel’s boasting of military capabilities especially in terms of their readiness to attack Iran was pure fantasy.
First Published by Tehran Times