A phone survey is conducted by “IranPoll” on 2017 presidential election, between April 11 and 14, among a representative sample of 1,005 Iranians (with the margin of error of +/- 3.09%). Participants were asked to answer to ten different questions about 6 potential candidates.
The report is basically based on the data provided by Pre-Election National Opinion Poll (April 2017) by “Iran poll”. It is noteworthy that two candidates who were included in the survey but were later disqualified by the Guardian Council are not included in this report. Another two candidates that considered eligible by the Guardian Council and were not studied in “Iran poll” are not studied, therefore; Hashemi Taba and Mirsalim.
As a result, the report is concerned with the following four candidates: Rouhani, Ghalibaf, Raisi and Jahangiri.
The participants were asked 10 different questions about their ideas, opinions and views on these four candidates. The questions can be categorized in four main groups:
- Their satisfaction with their economic well-being and if they see any changes between now and four years ago.
- Their satisfaction with the economic situation of the country and their comparison between now and four years ago.
- They have been questioned about President Rouhani and his success or failure in economic matters and their opinion about Mr. Rouhani’s chance to take the office for the second term.
- Questions on whether the nuclear deal has or has not improved the economic situation of ordinary people.
- Respondents’ general views about the four candidates are also shown in the poll. Moreover, respondents were asked about their preferred candidate who can better accomplish peoples’ goals.
When the participants respond about their level of income: 37% said they were “getting by” with their level of income, then 28% of the participant declare that they are “hardly getting by”, 26% of the population said “it is very difficult to get by” and only 9% of respondents were satisfied by their income. When participants were asked how their welfare has changed in comparison to 4 years ago, only 11% announced an improvement.
With regard to the current economic situation of the country, 64% of the respondents were pessimistic: they considered economy as “somewhat bad” or “very bad”. 34% of the participants were optimistic about country’s economic situation. 52% believed that the situation is getting worse, and 31% show their hope in having better economic situation in future.
55% hold the belief that Mr. Rouhani was not successful in solving economic problems while
42% of the people believe that Mr. Rouhani was successful in this regard.
When people were asked about the relation between nuclear deal and economic improvement, there was less optimism with 72% majority stating that ordinary people’s economic status has not been improved as a result of the nuclear deal.
About President Rouhani, 56% of the participants thought that he will lose the next election and 34% suggest that he won't lose the election.
When people were asked about the most important issues that the next president should take care of, unemployment in general and youth unemployment with 55% were the most important area of concern. 19% of the people are worried about financial problems and almost one-third of population were worried about other problems;
The last part of the poll which is about the candidates themselves: it should be noted that before this poll is conducted before the outset of presidential campaign and televised debates. For instance, in last presidential election, the election of Mr. Rouhani did not seem very probable before the televised debates but after debates his popularity rose in the polls and eventually he became the president elect.
When people were asked about the favorableness of the candidates, Mr. Ghalibaf took the first position, Mr. Rouhani in the second position and then Mr. Raisi and Mr. Jahangiri, respectively. Rouhani has almost 65% favorablity, with nearly 35% view him as unfavorable. Mr. Raisi is the least candidate regarded as unfavorable with a slight difference followed by Mr. Ghalibaf.
When people were asked which candidate can better accomplish goals, Mr. Rouhani was the best in terms of percentage and Mr. Ghalibaf and the other candidate were far apart, and Mr. Raisi was the last person in this position.
The goals are listed below,
1) Improving Iran’s foreign relations
2) Increase civil liberties
3) Remove international sanctions
4) Fight corruption
5) Improve the living condition of the poor
6) Ameliorate Iran’s environmental problems
7) Reduce unemployment rate
50% of the respondents believed that Rouhani can do better in the first three priorities.
When it comes to fighting corruption, Mr. Rouhani and Mr. Ghalibaf are the best candidates in the eyes of people, but in this case there is major change about Mr. Raisi, with 20% of the people thinking that he will be successful in this regard, while his maximum chance in other doesn't exceed more than 15%.
In the last three priorities, again Mr. Rouhani and Mr. Ghalibaf are the best candidates. Ghablibaf, though gained a better position in the 5th.
As I mentioned before these poll and judgment all belong to pre- presidential campaign and debate, in which usually sudden changes and sometimes unpredicted ones comes up.