Peter Koenig, economist and geopolitical analyst, has answered the questions of Mehr News correspondent on drop in Pound value, Brexit and its impacts:
Just a few days after Theresa May's announcement of March (2017) as time to (start proceedings to) implement Brexit, the Pound dropped to lowest value in 31 years; no time before, even when Brexit was voted for, such a drop had happened. Why now this drop has occurred?
This, in my opinion, has nothing to do with the impact of BREXIT on the British or European, or even world economy.
First, let’s put the drop of the Pound in the context of the western monetary system. The West is living in an economy where the currency, i.e. the monetary system makes the economy, not the other way around as it should be – where the economy makes the monetary system. The western monetary system is entirely controlled by the US dollar. And it is in private hands, like the FED (the Federal Reserve Bank is completely private, but acts as the US Central Bank) and the key Wall Street banks, led by Goldman Sachs.
We are living in an economy where since the banking deregulation in the 1990s, money has absolutely no backing, not gold, not the economic output of a country or a region – nothing but thin air, as money is made by a mouse click on a computer by a private bank. In the US 97% of all money is made by private banks as debt. In Europe it’s not much different.
This system is perfect for speculation. You invent an event – and use that event in the media to justify a fall in the stock market, or in this case a currency.
In the case of the British Pound, it was not even necessary to invent an event – there is BREXIT, and BREXIT will last for a long time, perhaps even more than the statutory limit of 2 years, as everything is negotiable, especially between the UK and the EU.
So, last Friday, the value of the Pound dropped by 6% in a few seconds - of which it recovered at least 5% in less than an hour. This, in my opinion, has nothing to do with the wild guesses of some media pundits, saying it was a ‘Fat Finger, i.e. a ‘mistake’, or a case of ‘liquidity sales’. It has equally nothing to do with the British or EU economy now, and how BREXIT may affect these economies in the future. Nobody can quite predict dynamics of such future developments. But according to many renowned economists, internal British economists, as well as international economists, BREXIT will actually be good for the UK in the long run.
So, from my point of view, this drop and recovery of the Pound is pure and simple speculation. Speculation by banks that use the pretext of BREXIT – and mind you, this is most likely not the last time – to make a quick profit, probably in the hundreds of millions, if not billions – in 15 minutes – why not? The system allows it, so it’s legal.
Does it mean that the world has just realized that UK is really separating from the EU?!
Not at all. Ever since the results of the 23 June referendum was known, the world has realized that against all ‘establishment’ predictions, a majority of British citizens has expressed its displeasure with Brussels and decided they wanted to exit the orbit of this neoliberal dictatorship which has done away with most – and I mean most – of EU member countries’ sovereignty. This is even worse for those 19 countries which are part of the Eurozone.
For many it came as a surprise. But the ‘paid’ western mainstream media (msm), immediately had a Plan ‘’B’’, namely to demonize all those who voted ‘leave’, i.e. for BREXIT and to start a media campaign of fear mongering – fear for ‘what may happen in the future - it will be horrible for the UK, they better think about it again.’ There were immediately people collecting signatures to repeat the referendum in the hope that the media could do a better job in convincing the people a second time around to stay with this abusive system, called the EU. Fortunately, that didn’t fly, and Teresa May has clearly said there will be no second referendum.
Nevertheless, the EU top US vassals, like France and German and others had at the time started seeking ‘dialogues’ with then PM Cameron, to look for options to avoid BREXIT – or to make it a BREXIT ‘light-light’, so as not to impact on the ‘established order’. Even US Secretary of State Kerry had to bring his unsolicited opinion (most US opinions are unsolicited but they come anyway and if not accepted, they come by sledgehammer), jetting immediately to London to talk to Cameron to discuss the means there are to avoid or eternally delay BREXIT. One way would have been having to ratify the plebiscite decision by Parliament. This option, however, was ruled out fairly early on, by Cameron’s successor, Teresa May.
However, fearmongering continues. And fearmongering by the media of course also gives ‘legal’ grounds in the western speculative pyramid monetary system, to gamble with the country’s currency, as we have seen just a few days ago – and this will not be the last we’ve seen.
According to economics, is this drop natural and justifiable or just a media hype? is it something lasting?
In my opinion, this has nothing to do with economics, as most likely Britain’s economy will do better outside the EU than inside. But again, the BREXIT event is now used by those who control the major media (six Anglo-Zionist Media giants control 90% of the western media) for fear-mongering - you may call it indeed ‘media hype’, but with a special purpose, namely to discourage others from exiting the EU, and to give banks a lead for speculations, and I mean massive speculations. Such massive speculations as we have seen last Friday can make hundreds of millions or even billions for banks who coordinate their efforts to drop the pound within seconds – and then, at a certain point they repurchase the currency to drive its value back up again.
I could even imagine – don’t really know, but could imagine – that the Bank of England is behind this massive quick-drop, to make a quick profit – or in other words to recover some of the billions the Bank of England has already and will be putting into the ‘system’ to stabilize the English Pound. – Why not, after all, in the Western monetary system, money is made of thin air, but to maintain a certain balance you recover some of what others have already taken out as speculative profit.
Shall we expect more and serious turmoils after March 2017 when Brexit is happened?
There may be many more ‘turmoils’ before and after March 2017, if and when the BREXIT process will begin, as is now forecast by PM Teresa May. But, be also prepared, after having screamed ‘wolf’ a few times, people may not react anymore. So the speculators have to invent new games, and inventive they are. They could easily use BREXIT to speculate against any other currency, even the Euro, as long as it still exists.
The BIS itself – the Bank for International Settlement, also called the Central Bank of all central banks, could also clandestinely intervene on behalf of those who control it.
Does this pound value collapse have any impact on the EU and its economy?
Only to the extend the western system actually allows it. At one point those who control and benefit from the system may stop the speculation, as it drives down too far the economies they use to usurp Europe and the world. They, the masters of the monetary system, will seek a certain balance, of course always in their favor, but avoiding an entire system’s collapse. – Because, as it looks today from the point of view of serious analysts, BREXIT by itself will most likely not have negative long-term impacts either on the EU or the UK, safe for more restrictions in the free move of the labor market which in time will automatically regulate itself. To the contrary, the UK in the long run is poised to benefit from being a sovereign nation again. It may negotiate freely, without imposed rules and restrictions by Brussels, access to new markets around the world, including within the EU. Of course, speculators and western media pundits will do everything to prove the contrary, no matter how unsubstantiated their claims are.
As long as people listen to and go along with the western media, without asking any questions, because ‘they know what they are talking about’ (that’s unfortunately the way the current lethargic Occident functions), so long will they try to bring the system down – just a bit more, god forbid, not totally – hoping they can prevent others from deciding likewise to take back their sovereignty and independence from the nefarious Brussels bureaucracy.
How do you think it would affect (North) Ireland and Scotland's consideration of remaining in the EU?
That is a good question. My first guess is that both of these UK Commonwealth ‘provinces’ are weary of being part of the UK and would like to take this opportunity to separate from the UK. One way would be attempting to stay in the EU while the UK exits. Of course, none of them has yet seriously considered the conditions of entering independently the EU and what it would mean for them. Or maybe they have; and that’s why the voices of ‘separation’ and becoming independent EU members have calmed down lately. This process, in my opinion, is still wide open. It may lean one way or another. Once the BREXIT process starts, presumably in March 2017, trilateral talks between the UK, Northern Ireland and Scotland may also become more visible. Surely they have started already. This process may last, according to Article 50 of the EU regulations, up to 24 months, and possibly longer if there is serious ground for longer negotiations.
Peter Koenig is an economist and geopolitical analyst. He is also a former World Bank staff and worked extensively around the world in the fields of environment and water resources. He writes regularly for Global Research, ICH, RT, Sputnik, PressTV, The 4th Media, TeleSUR, TruePublica, The Vineyard of The Saker Blog, and other internet sites. He is the author of Implosion – An Economic Thriller about War, Environmental Destruction and Corporate Greed – fiction based on facts and on 30 years of World Bank experience around the globe. He is also a co-author of The World Order and Revolution! - Essays from the Resistance.
Interview by Parnaz Talebi