The distinguishing line for the European Community begins from the point that the very fundamental values spring concrete norms and rules which ensure the community’s progressive integrity. To continue the transcendence, the European glory of unity allows continuous eminence of the standardized as well as systematized values, based on participation of the public. To illustrate, the recent survival story of Greek in the Community and the issue of sharing asylum-seekers in the Europe introduce us “responsive interdependency” as a sort of typically European basic value.
The value of responsive interdependency, apart from its dominant economic aspect, is originated by the regional cooperation and aimed at fairly distribution of common goods, which explain why the members prefer interdependence rather than independence generally; i.e., why the communal self-determination is more benefited in comparison with personal self-sufficiency. The responsive interdependency plays as guardian of objective elements of the Community, while the prevalent values and relative mechanisms, themselves, create necessary adequacy of the European interdependency. Undoubtedly, many issues dictate some values and impacts to members of the European Community and such the developments can be analyzed politically, economically, and legally.
From political point of view, it seems that the European Community will be changed to a more correlated entity, albeit less powerful. I mean, on the one hand, the EU will be confronted with some scattered movements to withdraw from the Community by other members. Consequently, main country-leaders of ideology of European unity such as France and Germany will be significantly faced with more challenging campaigns which may approach to get rid of the EU. On the other hand, smaller countries like Scotland and Northern Ireland will take some distance from their traditional parent-country to remain more loyal to the EU. Nonetheless, the EU states will be more committed to keep united which can be construed as a resistance to survive European identity.
In the economic scale, the EU will hear bad news on financial as well as capital market for a while. Negative mental consequences of the UK withdrawal from the European Community affects investments and degrades dare of traders to establish a kind of constant and regular business. Money value in the Europe will drop considerably and many of bilateral commercial arrangements between the UK and other EU members will be captured by uncertainties and instabilities. Such a trend will make the US wealthier and bulk of capitals will flow to the United States. Of course, the UK is not an exception. It will suffer, too, painful economic constraints for years.
In the view of legal issues, while the UK is intended to keep separated from global powers, it might be inevitable for the UK to go up to the US feet gradually. It seems logical to the UK authorities to maintain their influence on international initiatives. Universal groupings to decide on international matters, particularly in the forum of the United Nations will be changed dramatically. The EU is undivided now and to reach agreement between permanent members of the UN Security Council seems more difficult. Even Iran, after sanction relief era, should be more conservative about the way which tries to foster its financial as well as commercial relations with the UK which is no longer follows the EU policies.
To sum up, I would like to read the world at least up to 2020 under these lines: the European value of responsive interdependency brings a more consolidated EU which is more weakened economically, but is stronger in adherence of European identity. The EU architecture will be reconstructed by less powerful European countries which are placed at the same level adequately. The United States will play more effective roles at the stage of political as well as economic and financial matters. The US needs more endeavors to obtain European accompanying for most of its international ambitions.
Dr. Amir Saed Vakil is a professor of international law and lawyer who has written and translated dozens of papers and books on international law, human rights and constitutional rights.