- Nader Entessar is a professor in University of South Alabama. He is the author of 'Kurdish Ethnonationalism' (1992) and the co-editor of 'Reconstruction and Regional Diplomacy in the Persian Gulf' (Routledge, 1992) and 'Iran and the Arab world.'
Some argue that Nouri al-Maliki has delayed implementation of Article 140 of the Iraq’s Constitution and a referendum should be held to solve the differences on disputed regions between Kurds and the Iraqi government. What would it mean to raise this issue in current critical conditions in Iraq?
Articles 58 and 140 of the Iraqi constitution provide a mechanism for a referendum to be held to decide the permanent status and future of the disputed territories. However, under the Iraqi constitution, only the federal government in Baghdad is allowed to hold such a referendum in disputed territories. Moreover, Article 140 calls for a three-step process before the referendum can be administered. These three steps include: 1) reversing the Arabization process in disputed areas, 2) holding a census, and 3) holding a referendum. So, far, only the first step has been adhered to. That is why; the Iraqi government has been blamed for not implementing the provisions of Article 140.
Would possible dissolution of Iraq protect the Kurds’ interests in the region?
At this time, the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) depends heavily on revenues from the central government in Baghdad to run its affairs. Almost 95 percent of the KRG's operating budget comes from Baghdad. Although the KRG has exported some oil via Turkey and has earned revenues for its oil exports, it needs to export significantly more oil (probably around 800,000 barrels a day) to start becoming self-sufficient. It will take a long time before the necessary infrastructure is built to allow the KRG to export enough oil to make it Kurdistan self-supporting. In addition to economic issues, there are a number of other variables, such as the multi-ethnic composition of disputed areas such as Kirkuk, which may make it difficult to delineate the final boundaries of a Kurdish state.
Democratic National Union of Kurdistan (YNDK) opposes Iraq’s dissolution. What will the Union’s position be in the case a referendum becomes serious?
The position of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) on Iraq's division has been more nuanced than that of the Kurdish Democratic Party (KDP). But I think if a decision is made to hold a referendum in Kurdistan, the PUK will support it and go along with it.
How do you comment on Turkey’s position on independence of Kurdistan in Iraq?
Turkey has developed extensive commercial and political ties with the KRG in recent years and has become Kurdistan most important trading and commercial partner. The ruling AKP government in Turkey is hedging its bets. That is why we see statements by various Turkish officials that both support and oppose Kurdish independence. Turkey wants to remain in a position of politico-economic dominance in Kurdistan. Because of Kurdistan's heavy reliance on Turkish goodwill, Ankara may think that it will be able to dominate any Kurdish entity in Iraq. Turkey will be Kurdistan's lifeline, with or without independence. In short, Turkey's position is based on its strategic calculation.
Given that Turkey still faces the Kurd question inside, why would it support Kurds’ independence in Iraq?
Interview: Javad Heirania
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