Myriad of evidence show that Trump will lead the US into the precipice from which the country would have a free fall to the abyss; the hawkish Republicans however would rejoice full control of the House and the Senate; yet they would be quite apprehensive of the realities out on the field the Trump administration has prepared for them. The White House is totally disorganized, as many in the mainstream media would admit; the swamp Trump had promised to dry, one famous New York Times opinion writer believed, “now the reptiles had been housed in the White House, and Trump was true in his promise to dry the swamp.”
Only 50 and odd days have elapsed since he assumed power in an office whose requirements would dwarf the general qualities of a fashion and real estate mogul like Trump. First of all, we should sit and wait whether the Republicans would patiently behold Trump and his havoc upon the US prestige.
The House and the Senate will definitely have a limit to their patience in allowing Trump in his escapades in foreign policy which largely discredit the US as the most important country in the west and its leader, with Europeans now, upon seeing that Trump would be quite lax in addressing the security of the EU, have raised calls to fashion their own security order and organizations, apart from NATO, the subject of much criticism by Trump over the fact that the US had contributed more than its share to the EU security, with the latter paying little of their share of contribution. His wall to be built, as he claimed by Mexican resources, in the borders with the southern neighbor have gone nowhere. With the wall to prevent undocumented immigrants from Mexico, observers believe it will face major hurdles in the House in terms of financing a massive project as the wall which would traverse diverse terrain types and would upset frontline communities.
In the Middle East, his much vaunted plans to fight and destroy ISIL have not chances of being formulated. The JCPOA alike, is still on the place; Russia now dominates the Middle East in a gap the sheer inaction of Obama and then Trump administrations has created. China now prepares to assume more important roles in Asia and in the Pacific, working out new alliances and trade arrangements.
Trump’s positions and political views are strongly influenced, as I understand, by qualitative relations with its European allies. The general inclination that the US would espouse trade schemes which put the domestic trade in priority, has raised concerns over ascendency of alternative trade arrangements, with China possibly seeking to fill the gap and assume the new leadership, for example, in Trans-Pacific Partnership, which Trump has plans to withdraw from.
In international arena, the US prestige has rapidly deteriorated as the power on which world people would invest hopes; there will soon be only a shadow of the country in international system, with it no longer effectively contributing to global crises, thanks to Trump’s infatuation with the internal issues.
Trump’s immigration executive order has faced strong opposition inside and in the international community, with 6 states planning to file lawsuits against Trump’s second executive order before going effective on March 16. His first was failed in achieving anything and was ruled out by a court verdict in Seattle. His inherently religious bias had been the subject of much venom and vitriolic by human rights advocacy groups.
As such, Donald Trump’s chances of election for a second term in office will be quite flimsy. Even speculations of circles a bit more pessimistic and centered on conspiracy theories, believe Trump would be eliminated by impeachment by the Congress and or be assassinated. The US history has not been infrequent in presenting examples of both. Only time will show.
Habib Ashayeri is a PhD candidate in political sciences in the Islamic Republic of Iran.