Post-sanctions economy: A long road to stability

TEHRAN, Apr. 06 (MNA) – Economic observers believe government of President Hassan Rouhani should brace for post-sanctions conditions.

Swiss Statement, which is known better as Lausanne Statement, does not go beyond a mere statement; sanctions are still in place and market has more potential for stability. There is much speculation as to the future of Iran’s economy. Observers are optimistic about Iran’s economy; however, they believe that a good planning should help manage the post-sanctions conditions; the new conditions faced in economy may damage production. They also believe that Europeans would swarm the market, outrunning the Asian players, thus creating quite a novel situation for the market.

Yahya Ale Eshaq, head of Tehran Chamber of Commerce, Industries and Mines believes that post-sanctions conditions opens doors of Iran’s economy and market for Europeans seeking new markets amid the global recession. “Unregulated imports would damage domestic production accordingly; production in post-sanctions era should be managed so that it can compete with foreign goods and services, since then, the economy is under the new pressures from outside,” he noted.

“Under any circumstances, production has a high finished cost, and the quality of domestic goods falls short of global standards of excellence, since Iran, under sanctions, has not have access to cutting-edge technology enjoyed by the west; overall, in any competitive market, Iran’s industries and economy may face demanding situation,” says the veteran market activist, “so, there is a need for preparation and policy, a regulatory body and management approach to handle the situation.”

Mehdi Karbasian, Deputy-Minister of Industries, Mines, and Trade, apparently here speaking on behalf of the government, believes that Iran’s industries and economy have got used to ‘unfair and difficult working situation created by sanctions;’ “However, economic authority, well-suited to work in difficult conditions as it is, would not advocate even more demanding conditions for Iranian economic firms; the current government, like any other government seeking development, would bolster competitive power of firms and creating a better atmosphere where they could flourish,” he added.

“Any nuclear agreement could improve conditions for Iran’s industries, which have been badly hit by sanctions; while government has a pass mark in taming the intransigent beast of inflation, the economy is still dipped deep in recession, and thus the public as well as private sector work to find a way out of the recession first and foremost,” said the deputy-minister. “Embracing economic boom has specific prerequisites; the government has clearly shown that it lends trust in private sector; so in any situation post-sanctions, private sector will be more active in the economy,” he added.

A less optimistic view came from Sharif Nezam-Mafi, the head of Iran-Switzerland Joint Chamber of Commerce, who believes that sanctions removal were not supposed to do magic for Iran’s economy; “even if nuclear talks yield desirable outcomes, it would help only 30 per cent of Iran’s demands such as elimination of sanctions on swift banking transaction system; there is no precise estimations of damage wreaked upon Iranian economy by sanctions yet; any nuclear deal will have impact on financial markets first; however, some economic analysts believe that dollar, as an important indicator of country’s economic conditions, will be exchanged well in par with present prices,” he asserted.

 

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